Posts by Collection

coding

General R Resources

coding, University of Oxford, 2020

This is a simple collection of resources that I find useful. In the future, this site will feature more extensive discussions about R, stata, GitHub and python coding practices.

Climate Tools and Tricks

coding, University of Oxford, 2020

A collection of packages, code snippets and gists to import, modify, and analyse Climate Data.

R Markdown and LaTeX

coding, University of Oxford, 2021

Some resources on writing Journal articles in RMarkdown

Teaching Econometrics in R

coding, University of Oxford, 2021

A collection of resources that I have used to teach econometrics and statistics.

portfolio

publications

Wirtschaftswachstum und Klimawandel: Chancen und Herausforderungen auf dem Weg zur klimafreundlichen Gesellschaft

Published in Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 2017

Die internationale Staatengemeinschaft hat die Dekarbonisierung der Wirtschaft zum Schutz vor unbeherrschbarem Klimawandel beschlossen. Gegenwärtig gibt es auf globaler wie nationaler Ebene eine Vielzahl politischer Maßnahmen zur Erreichung dieses Ziels. Diese müssen jedoch stark ausgebaut und effizient ausgestaltet werden. Der vorliegende Beitrag zeigt auf, dass Klimaschutz grundsätzlich mit Wirtschaftswachstum vereinbar ist, aber ebenso, dass diese Vereinbarkeit sehr anspruchsvoll sein wird und eine kohärente politische Regulierung benötigt: Umfassende CO2-Preise sind eine notwendige Bedingung für ambitionierten Klimaschutz in wachsenden Wirtschaften. Diese sind aber nicht hinreichend; ergänzende Maßnahmen zum existierenden EU-Emissionshandel werden für eine effiziente Dekarbonisierung in Österreich benötigt. Am Beispiel des Verkehrssektors und der Landwirtschaft Österreichs zeigen wir auf, wie eine gut gestaltete Klimapolitik Chancen für Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft eröffnet.

Blog Post

Recommended citation: Mattauch, L., Roesti, M., Schwarz, M. and Siegmeier J. (2017). Wirtschaftswachstumund Klimawandel: Chancen und Herausforderungen auf dem Weg zur klimafreundlichenGesellschaft. Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter. 3/2017. https://www.wko.at/site/WirtschaftspolitischeBlaetter/mattauch-et-al.pdf

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

Published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2018

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts” (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p<0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Blog Post, Visualisations, and Data

Press Coverage

Recommended citation: Pretis, F., Schwarz, M., Tang, K., Haustein, K., & Allen, M. R. (2018). Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5 C or 2 C warming. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2119), 20160460. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2016.0460

Antworten auf zentrale Fragen zur Einführung von CO2-Preisen. Gestaltungsoptionen und ihre Auswirkungen für den schnellen Übergang in die klimafreundliche Gesellschaft

Published in Diskussionsbeiträge der Scientists for Future, 2019

Derzeit wird in Deutschland daher kontrovers diskutiert, ob und wie CO2-Emissionen einen höheren Preis bekommen können. Dabei werden die Formen einer CO2-Steuer, einer Erweiterung des europäischen Emissionshandels oder Mischformen und Varianten dieser Instrumente erwogen. Mit der nachfolgenden Zusammenstellung einiger in der Öffentlichkeit häufig diskutierter Fragen bereiten wir den Stand der Forschung für Interessierte auf.

Online Version

Recommended citation: Mattauch, L., Creutzig, F., aus dem Moore, N., Franks, M., Funke, F., Jakob, M., Sager, L., Schwarz, M., Voß, A., Beck, M. L., Daub, C. H., Drupp, M., Ekardt, F., Hagedorn, G., Kirchner, M., Kruse, T., Loew, T., Neuhoff, K., Neuweg, I., Peterson, S., Roesti, M., Schneider, G., Schmidt, R., Schwarze, R., Siegmeier, J., Thalmann, P., Wallacher, J. (2019). Antworten auf zentrale Fragen zur Einführung von CO2-Preisen. Gestaltungsoptionen und ihre Auswirkungen für den schnellen Übergang in die klimafreundliche Gesellschaft. (Version 2). Diskussionsbeiträge der scientists for future. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3644498

The Challenge of Using Epidemiological Case Count Data: The Example of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and the Weather

Published in Environmental and Resource Economics, 2020

The publicly available data on COVID-19 cases provides an opportunity to better understand this new disease. However, strong attention needs to be paid to the limitations of the data to avoid making inaccurate conclusions. This article, which focuses on the relationship between the weather and COVID-19, raises the concern that the same factors influencing the spread of the disease might also affect the number of tests performed and who gets tested. For example, weather conditions impact the prevalence of respiratory diseases with symptoms similar to COVID-19, and this will likely influence the number of tests performed. This general limitation could severely undermine any similar analysis using existing COVID-19 data or comparable epidemiological data. This could mislead decision-makers on questions of great policy relevance.

Data and Code: Github

Selected Press Coverage:
Press release by the Oxford Martin School

Recommended citation: Cohen, F., Schwarz, M., Li, S., Lu, Y., Jani, A. (2020). The Challenge of Using Epidemiological Case Count Data: The Example of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and the Weather. Environmental and Resource Economics. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-020-00493-2#Sec43

Climate change and emerging markets after Covid-19

Published in A Report prepared for Pictet Asset Management, 2020

This report, written for Pictet Asset Management, offers a deep and broad analysis of the risks and opportunities emerging economies – and the world more generally – face from climate change in a post-Covid-19 world. The insights of this report are based on the latest economic and climate modelling techniques.

Recommended citation: Cohen, F., Ives, M., Srivastav, S., Schwarz, M., Lu, Y., Mealy, P., Bento Maffei de Souza, P., Jackson, L., Hepburn, C. (2020). Climate change and emerging markets after Covid-19. A Report prepared for Pictet Asset Management. https://am.pictet/en/globalwebsite/global-articles/2020/pictet-asset-management/climate-change-and-emerging-markets-after-covid

Climate change: Answers to common questions.

Published in A Report prepared for Pictet Asset Management, 2020

This report, written for Pictet Asset Management, seeks to dispel many of the lingering myths about climate change and sheds new light on the scale of the likely damage if decision makers fail to meet carbon emission targets. Uncertainty about climate science and economics poses challenges for business and finance. Reasonable and intelligent people frequently ask us for a reference document to set out what is known and not known about climate change, including research that is sometimes contrary to prevailing societal beliefs, if only to avoid debates about areas that are settled and instead to direct attention to the areas where further research is valuable. We have structured this report into nine areas of doubt commonly expressed about climate science and economics, each of which is broken down into points of contention. We also highlight key facts and estimates in which scholars have high levels of confidence. Each section begins with a common challenge about climate science and economics, expressed as a quotation.

Recommended citation: Hepburn, C. and Schwarz, M. (2020). Climate change: Answers to common questions. A Report prepared for Pictet Asset Management. https://www.group.pictet/media-relations/media-releases/climate-change-9-contentions-testing-truthfulness

Testing for Coefficient Distortion due to Outliers with an Application to the Economic Impacts of Climate Change

Published in Working Paper, 2021

Outlying observations can bias regression estimates, requiring the use of robust estimators. Comparing robust estimates to those obtained using OLS is a common robustness check, however, such comparisons have been mostly informal due to the lack of available tests. Here we introduce a formal test for coefficient distortion due to outliers in regression models. Our proposed test is based on the difference between OLS and robust estimates obtained using a class of Huber-skip M-type estimators (such as Impulse Indicator Saturation or Robustified Least Squares). Establishing asymptotics of the corresponding Huber-skip M-estimators using an empirical process CLT recently developed by Berenguer-Rico et al. (2019), we show that our distortion test has an asymptotic chi-squared distribution, and is valid for cross-sectional as well as panel and time series models. To improve finite sample performance and to alleviate concerns on distributional assumptions, we further introduce and explore three bootstrap testing schemes. We apply our outlier distortion test to estimates of the macro-economic impacts of climate change allowing for adaptation. We find that OLS estimates are significantly different to those obtained using a robust estimator and provide evidence of income-driven adaptation. Projecting the resulting damage curve to the end of the century shows that outlier-robust estimates dampen projected GDP losses and reduce the estimated marginal impacts of additional warming under adaptation.

Recommended citation: Jiao, Xiyu and Pretis, Felix and Schwarz, Moritz, Testing for Coefficient Distortion due to Outliers with an Application to the Economic Impacts of Climate Change (August 31, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3915040 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3915040

talks

teaching